My first real post in two months! I am in the land of the working now and I have moved to London. I have been there about two months now, though I haven’t even unpacked yet. Work is fascinating, but all-consuming. I’m not allowed to talk about the project I’m working on, so you will be spared the details.
I’m inspired to write a blog post for the first time in ages by some news I read. Those close to me will know that I spend too much time worrying about the economic situation. Call me an arrogant egotist if you will, but I feel I understand the situation better than most, better even than our esteemed prime minister. I’ve not posted that much on it on the blog because I already drive my friends and colleagues up the wall with my constant doom-mongering, and the blog was generally a more positive place and I wanted to leave it that way.
I have been obsessively trawing the following websites since around April 2006:
- Google Finance
- Yahoo Finance
- Financial Times
- Telegraph Finance
- UK House Bubble
- Long or Short Capital (funny-ish)
The truth as I see it is, that the economic situation is bad, and it’s going to get worse. A lot worse than most commentators currently accept. If you read the newspapers at the moment, most of what you get is either downbeat news about how the situation is worsening slightly, or you get brainless, misplaced optimism spouted by the unthinking. Slightly rarer than that is the well-thought-out analysis of the long-term situation, such as this, which I recommend you read and understand, no matter how many trips to Wikipedia it takes.
Most rare of all though, is what I stumbled on today: good news. Real good news, not a let’s-wish-it-all-away bit of nonsense. The news is this:
It may not be much, but this really means something to me, it’s the first ray of hope I’ve seen on the economic front since everything blew up in August 2007. (Because I was doing my doctorate, I had too much time on my hands to worry about things, and do loads of background reading.) Volcker truly understands the current situation, perhaps as well as anyone. What’s as is important is that he has held the reins of power, he has been the head of the central bank in the US, and he led them through an admittedly milder crisis. Obama, in one of his earliest decisions, has picked perhaps the best person for the job.
If you are interested enough to know a little more about Volcker, I recommend you read this transcript from a speech he made earlier in the year.